ljgeoff

The take home message here is that it's not just the carbon that we're pumping into the air that is a problem, it's the feedbacks from the carbon we're pumping in the air.

In case you missed it, we just passed the 400ppm CO2 mark.

We're also increasing the rate of emissions -- an average growth rate of 1.61 ppm of CO2 in the 80's, 1.50 in the 90's and 1.95 in the 00's. 2010 was 2.44, 2011 was 1.84 and 2012 was 2.66 -- the highest measured growth rate since Mauna Loa records began in 1959.

The estimated uncertainty in the Mauna Loa annual mean growth rate is 0.11 ppm/yr.

The main feedbacks, or forcings that we're facing are:

-- decreased albedo due to ice loss, the increase of vegetation in what used to be tundra, and the decrease in snow cover;

-- carbon cycle feedbacks from released methane clathrate from the sea bed, from decomposing peat bogs and tundra, and loss of Amazon Rainforest and other tropical rainforests. (really, the Amazon is disappearing almost as fast as the arctic ice -- it'll be savannah in my grandchildren's lifetime.)

-- desertification and forest fires. (Texas, Colorado and Oklahoma are currently facing a change in ecosystems, from the 2011 and 2012 wildfires)

I used to worry about methane. But then I read this quote by Hansen -- something like, Our CO2 emission is aiming us like a car heading 60 mph at a brick wall. Adding methane will mean that we're going 80 mph. We're still going to hit the brick wall, and it's the CO2 that drives up the methane.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the FAO, reports that global production of coarse grains could set a new record this year with strong growth also projected for global wheat and rice production -- barring unusual weather conditions. Meanwhile, the cryoscientists are expecting an new record low in September arctic ice.

Jeff Masters from Weather Underground talks about weather whiplash. Drought followed by floods, heatwaves followed by frosts. Personally? I think that hope can be a dangerous thing. It stifles fear which might be the only thing that encourages action.

At this point, I don't think that we will change our emission of carbon. I think that change will happen to us.

This is a pretty complicated subject; even the experts have shouting matches about what is going on. From what I understand, there are three main pieces to the world food price puzzle.

First is supply. This is the one I've been most worried about. Growing food is very weather-dependent. Drought, floods, as well as exceptional heat and cold will decrease supply. And, as predicted, the world wide decrease of bees to colony collapse disorder, varroa mites and IBDS is causing some shortages.

Second is derivative trading on food futures. This is the one I least understand. I just read How Goldman Sachs Created The Food Crisis and still don't quite get it. I need someone to explain to me how the money flows, from the grain growing in the ground to the toast I munch on. It seems pretty obvious, though, if billions of dollars are being siphoned off of the supply and demand chain, then prices would have to go up to cover that. What it feels like is a tax that the poor must pay so that the rich can become richer.

The third piece is that there are simply more mouths to feed. That one is pretty easy.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the FAO, has a world price index of food. The "Food Price Index", or FFPI as it is also known, is compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.

The Food Price Index is "a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities".

The "baskets of food commodities" are:

-FAO Cereal Price Index
-FAO Dairy Price Index
-FAO Oils/Fat Price Index
-FAO Meats Price Index
-FAO Sugar Price Index

Each of the five price indices includes a number of different quotations.

The values of the five indices are compiled and then weighted with the average exports shares of each of the groups for 2002-2004. The final result is a figure that represents the current value of the FAO Food Price Index. For instance, the value of the index in February of 2011 was 236, which was an all-time high.

In the mid 90's, the index hovered around 100-110.

I am rather irritated with the report put out by the FAO, What happened to world food prices and why? for this paragraph:

"Therefore, in order to answer the question as to whether the recent high-price episode is consistent with past commodity price behaviour of sharp but short-lived peaks and prolonged slumps or represents a break with past behaviour patterns, it is necessary to explore the nature of the apparent causes. Many different factors have been cited as responsible: production shortfalls, low stock levels, oil prices, biofuel demand, growing incomes in emerging economies, depreciation of the US dollar and speculation. While it is difficult to determine their individual contributions quantitatively, some of these factors could have a persistent effect on the average level of prices. There are some features of the current situation, notably the historically low stock levels for cereals and strong demand for biofuels, that suggest that, in spite of the downward adjustments from the peak of early 2008, the recent high prices may well not be short-lived but could persist for some years."

What I find irritating is the "production shortfalls, low stock levels" -- the cause of which is pretty well documented. The extreme weather brought by climate change has reduced world stock levels to an alarming low, and even this year's southern hemisphere production levels, the highest ever, won't be enough to make up for the shortfalls of the coming US growing season with the projected corn-belt drought to continue and perhaps worsen.

So, what I get from all of this:

-- Climate change is not going to slow down over the next 20 years; it's going to get worse. Our ability to increase food production will decrease if we don't make drastic changes in how/where we grow food in the near future.

-- The volatility in food production will only increase speculation.

-- Population continues to rise exponentially.

It's projected that food prices will rise in the US some 3%-4% by the end of 2013. I am curious to see how this will play out, how close the projections will match reality.

I've been thinking about building a manor. Who knows if I'll ever build it, but I've got these ideas and I thought I'd post them and then people can comment, make suggestions, poke holes -- whatever!

There is a piece of property up north that I can actually afford. It's a 40 acre parcel, about a mile from a small river with high lands and low lands. The soil is rich. It isn't near any industrial or mining sites. It has access via a well made dirt road. It's selling for $30k, with a land contract deal of 10% down. There are three 40s all togther. Here's the listing of one of the 40s.

If I don't get this one, I'll get something similar within the next couple of years.

I've been thinking about tire bales.

"Tire Bales are a solid compressed block of scrap waste tires. Each tire bale is made up of 89-110 passenger and light truck tires. One tire bale weighs 2,000 lbs., or one ton. The dimensions of the tire bales are: 60" long, 50" wide, and 30" tall. There are five 9-gauge steel wires that hold the tire bale together. Each tire bale can sustain 375,000 lbs of pressure before any failure will occur." Front Rang Tire Recycling

Here are some images of someone's tire bale house:



The main cost of tire bales is the movement and placement of them. At one ton each, we'd need to rent some pretty heavy equipment. We want to build an underbasement and an upper basement. We'd build at the base of a hill, dig out the basement and make a retaining wall between the hill and the first floor with the tire bales. We'd use the dirt from the basement to back fill between the house and the hill, so that the second floor will be ground level in back.

One set of wings will come off the ground floor, and one set will be staggered back, set up into the hill, coming off the second floor. I can visulize it, but I don't know if I'm describing it well.

I'm thinking that we'll build the hexagon or pentagon or with 24' sides, and the wings will be about 24'X48'. The above ground structure will be post and beam with stackwood, like this:



And shaped something like this:




Ok -- I'm going to build a mock-up.

Here you go. I just did the wings on one side; they'd be mirrored on the other side. What do you think?

I'm not sure how we can prepare for the reality of this continuing drought. The effects are becoming more severe and I wonder how things will go if it continues. Mostly, it will just come down to money -- more money for food, utilities and all kinds of goods.

Over on Neven's blog, many of the scientists and well-read and educated amateurs are worried about the current state of the arctic. Most expect a new low for arctic ice this autumn, and believe we are on the cusp of the transition to an ice-free arctic -- about 50 years earlier than the most radical estimates of only five years ago.

Homeowners in the midwest are battling cracking foundations. "Homeowners are learning that when soil dries up, it shrinks -- so foundations shift, twisting and cracking the houses on top of them... The cost is not usually covered by insurance, because the damage is blamed on an "act of God." ... (Minnesota) Builders have assumed that the ground around foundations would not shift because the soil moisture is relatively stable."
full article here.

Power generation accounts for almost 50% of the US' water usage. Kansas City Water office director Tracy Streeter "expected the reservoirs could meet the needs of downriver (of Topeka, KS) communities through 2013 without hitting levels that would trigger conservation efforts, but cities and industries could decide to take voluntary measures before then — assuming Kansas continues to remain in drought as the Drought Monitor predicts." article here

Drought has so lowered the level of the Mississippi that barges must carry much less load, increasing the cost of shipping. article here

Of course, the drought is having a huge impact on food production: winter wheat is shriveling, and now that we've gone through the glut of meat from last year's drought-induced slaughter, the cost of meat will be going up. Last week, there was a little sign on the spot where I usually buy my greens, saying that supplies were down due to "poor weather." I plan to grow as much of my veggies as I can this summer, but with the continuing drought, everyone is going to be paying more for fresh food.

Here in the US, the summer of 2013 is expected to be even hotter and drier than the the summer of 2012.

I'm not very well versed on how an economy works. But it makes sense to me that if it costs more for food and shelter, there'll be less spent on things like new shoes, refrigerators and eating out. Which means that companies won't hire as many people and so more people will be out of work.

The thing is, I don't really see an end to this. It's going to get much worse. And it's going to get much worse a heck of a lot faster than just about anyone thinks that it will.

" Anonymous said...
Most legal pleadings are as dry as sawdust -- not this one.

One of my favorite excerpts (so far):
Rather than defendingthe falsity of their words, because they cannot, Defendantsattemptto hide behind the “opinion defense’’—the last bastion of the apprehended liar.

I suspect that the last time that a plaintiff's legal team had so much fun was Kitzmiller v. Dover.

This definitely rates a solid 4 out of 5 bags of popcorn on the popcorn-o-meter."

Opposition to National Review Motion to Dismiss by EliRabett

I have been finding better balance in the last couple of weeks. My job is still hard and I'm working very hard to find things to like about it. It pays well. It's challeging. I'm very actively involved with saving people's lives. There.

The unseasonable warm weather (a mid January thaw is very normal for Michigan, but a week of temps in the 50s and 60s (F) is not) has sent me into a spin. I'm trying not to obsess. But that's not going well.

I think that I'm depressed again. I'm just not happy and I can't concentrate and nothing is fun.

Bleh.

Ok, I'm going to take a nap.

Oh, before I go -- if you're reading this on LJ and you have a DW account, I'd love to have you on my DW reading page.

I feel like I've been rolled in a carpet and beaten with sticks. But last night I got a solid eight hours of sleep, so at least I'm not exhausted on top of it. Which is good, 'cause I gotta bust out a dinner today.

In my family, Thanksgiving is all about the carbs. We'll have a turkey, but more importantly mashed white potatoes, Grandma's Rice Ring, chestnut stuffing, baked sweet potatoes and rutabaga (swedes?). Hmm, and also a jello thing made of orange jello, shredded carrot and crushed pineapple, steamed broccoli in the rice ring, an apple salad (waldorf) and cranberry sauce (both homemade whole and the canned stuff.)

Ok -- the boys just got up and now they're having some cereal. Yay for cereal!

Yesterday I wanted to quite my job. I didn't want to enough to actually quit, but I really wished hard for it for a good half hour.

Things that are good in my life right now:

-- The little boys are healthy and happy.
-- All of my children, their wives and children are healthy and happy.
-- Mike and I are making enough money to pay our bills.


That's three really, really big things.

Next week, there's a court hearing for Jerome, and we're expecting some good news. I know that the DHS plan continues to be reunification, but I don't know how things are going to work.

So, something that I haven't talked much about is that Mike and I are buying a house. It's old and needs a new roof, and we're getting it on land contract for $1200 down, payments of about $525/mo. Total sale price is $35,000. Here it is on Zwillow. There are pictures of the lovely woodwork.

It needs a new roof to the point that there's been some significant damage to one of the upstairs ceilings, but we're handy and Keith does roofing and we can call down a couple of sons for the weekend and knock it out. Downstairs, there is a small fireplace in the living room, and the room is L-shaped, so we can make a bit of a playroom there. There's a small formal dining room and the kitchen is ok. Upstairs, there's three bedrooms and a sun room. We won't be able to have our big bed, but we have a queen that Jerome is using, and we'll use that.

There's only one bathroom and there's an attic and a basement.

We've been talking to Jerome about how he's going to work things out with the kids. He knows that he's not quite up to taking care of the kids 24/7 -- even if the DHS declares him fit. So we're thinking that we can sell the double-wide modular we're in (it needs a new roof, too, and we might be able to get 8K for it) and when we redo the roof, we can raise it up a bit and make an apartment for Jerome there, with a bedroom, bathroom and living/kitchenette.

The yard is very small, but there's a community garden and a park.

I'm really hoping that after the court hearing, Jerome will at least be able to parent the kids here while we're at work. About 3/4 of my pay is currently going for childcare. The boys really love the center, though. We're applying for a grant to cover the childcare expense, but I don't know if they'll pay us back for what we've already paid out. We'll deal.

Okay, the cereal is done, and the boys are heading to a morning bath. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

I am going forward with the idea of turning the huge old house in Charlotte, Michigan into a low-cost housing cooperative. My plan is to purchase the house and renovate it, making three handicap accessible suits and around five upstairs and basement rooms. The home has over 1500 sq ft of living space per floor, so including the basement, over 4500 sq ft of living space. There is also an attic that can be used for storage space.

Charlotte, Michigan is about 30 miles southwest of East Lansing, where Michigan State University is located.

I expect that the renovation will take at least two years, maybe up to four years. The place is structurally sound, in beautiful shape, really. I just expect to move slowly.

What I need:

Stage 1) Money. I plan to start an Indiegogo crowdsource fundraising project in four weeks. But to even get this off the ground I need help:

--------> a) Someone to make a vid to go on the Indiegogo page. Before we can do anything, we need to get a vid done for the Indiegogo page. I don't have the software or the know-how to do this on my own. I can provide stills, voice-over and video footage for the vid. I can't pay you; vidder has final say of the finished vid, will have credit on the site, and may use the vid in any portfolio.

--------> b) Critique on the Indiegogo project page before it goes live. I've never done anything like this, so I'd love extra eyes on what we're going to put out, especially if you have experience with crowdsource funding.

--------> c) Getting the word out! The only way that something like this has any chance of success is if a ton of people see it and are moved to donate.


Stage 2) If we get enough money to buy the house, I'm going to be looking for people who are interested in working on the project:

--------> a) Resident Director: (one person or a couple) pay would be free room and maybe board, too, if we raise enough money. Your job would be to oversee all the work that is being done, keep to-do lists and generally keep things moving along. You would work at least 15 hours/wk. You must have references. Must have some experience managing a small work group; must play well with others and be willing to live rough until you get the first rooms renovated.

--------> b) Interns: (3 to 6 people - couples ok) pay would be free room and maybe board. Come and renovate a really cool old house! You must work at least 15 hours/wk. Artists and gardeners are encouraged to apply. You must have some experience in this kind of work, with references. Must play well with others; must be willing to live rough until you get your living area renovated.

Note: I love kids -- but this house is not yet kid safe. Maybe once some of the work is further along, but not yet.

I think that the last time I mentioned Josh, was when I had to go up north and clean up the house after he and Kyle had trashed it. After that, he lived in a guy's garage for a while, then moved back in with his folks last summer. Josh has fetal alcohol syndrome, which has mostly effected him with some pretty severe ADHD and some learning disabilities. If you've ever seen my Facebook page, Josh is the kid that I have my arm slung around. I wrote this post about 18 mos ago.

But after his stint in the garage, something clicked with Josh.

Last winter, he got into NMU and is now majoring in computer sciences. He got a job this summer working at the NMU computer lab and got his own apartment this month.

He just posted this on his Facebook:

Hello Professor Markle,

I'm a Freshman level Computer Science major, and I am looking to drop a class I am currently enrolled in, as it is out of my current skill-set, and would love to replace it with your Mythology course at 1pm (*CRN- 81661). I understand that it is probably a little late to get into your class, but I know I can read the material, and am a phenomenal participant in classroom discussion. If this is something you see as being possible, please get back to me. I would love to hear from you soon.

P.S. Please read this message in the voice of Christopher Walken, as that would probably lighten the situation, and potentially help my case for getting into your class.

To which the professor replied:

Josh,
That's funny. You'll get far in my class with an attitude and sense of humor like that. I will add you (your postscript clinched it). Be aware that you have some catching up to do in terms of reading, and you missed lecture information. I'm definitely willing to sit down with you and help catch you up, though. Come to class on Monday with an add card and we will go over everything. Then we can schedule a time to meet and discuss (perhaps Tuesday or Thursday?). I will email you a copy of the syllabus later on today - I'm on a computer that doesn't have any of my documents at the moment. I look forward to meeting you, and I'll see you on Monday.
Cheers, J.

Oh, Josh, I do love you. Go get 'em, kid.



Christmas 2011

I still like the name Gaagii. Hmph. Anyways, this is a pretty succinct explanation of the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012. From Artful Dodger on the post Record dominoes 9: PIOMAS sea ice volume at Nevin's Arctic Sea Ice Blog:

GAC-2012 was NOT a tropical cyclone, it was a cold-core (extra-tropical) cyclone. Certainly it was very large, powerful and long-lived, with exceptionally low central pressure and strong winds but none-the-less, not a tropical cyclone.

All cyclones are heat difference engines, propelling moist air into a rotating vortex which transfers heat from the warm side to the cold side. With GAC-2012, the warm side was the airmass over Siberia, and the cold side was the pack ice in the Central Arctic Basin.

The jetstream added further rotation to the gathering depression, reinforced by the Coriolis effect. Voilà, a massive storm was the result, one even more powerful than hurricane Issac which just devastated Louisiana (964 mb vs 970 mb central pressure).

Note that a cold-core cyclone is the WORSE possible scenario for sea ice survival, since it moves heat from the South over the continent into the midst of the pack ice. And scientific studies show these storms are getting more frequent and more powerful since 2007.

But remember this take-away point (when engaging deniers): the loss of sea ice caused this storm, NOT the other way around. This cyclone simply could not have occurred without vast areas of melt-out in the Arctic ocean, and the vast snow cover retreat in Siberia.

When these conditions reoccur, it will happen again. The next big Summer cyclone could finish the Arctic sea ice.

"Shaken AND stirred, with crushed ice."

Here's a visual that puts the current ice volume in context. n Click on the image to see the whole graph if it's cut off.