ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-09-14 05:24 pm

point of no return

I'm studying for my exam on Monday. According to my Prof, one should take a break from the material every 20 or 30 min, to increase comprehension and retention. So I decided to read some papers.

If I'm reading this one right, we have about two years until we hit the point of no return (PNR) on climate change.

From: Brenda C. van Zalinge, Qing Yi Feng, Matthias Aengenheyster, and Henk A. Dijkstra. (2017) On determining the point of no return in climate change. Earth System Dynamics, 8, 707–717. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-707-2017

Definitions in the introduction:

Given a certain desirable subspace of the climate system state vector (e.g. to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference) and a suite of control options (e.g. CO2 emission reduction), it is important to know when it is too late to steer the system to “safe” conditions, for example in the year 2100. In other words, when is the point of no return (PNR)? The tolerable windows approach (TWA; Petschel-Held et al., 1999) and viability theory (VT; Aubin, 2009) approaches and the theory in (Heitzig et al., 2016) suffer from the “curse of dimensionality”and cannot be used within CMIP5 climate models.

For example, the optimization problems in VT and TWA lead to dynamic programming schemes which have up to now only been solved for model systems with low-dimensional state vectors. The approach in (Heitzig et al., 2016) requires the computation of regional boundaries in state space, which also becomes tedious in more than two dimensions. Hence,with these approaches it will be impossible to determine a PNR using reasonably detailed models of the climate system.

Steaming on to the discussion...

Pachauri et al. (2014) stated with high confidence that “without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread and irreversible impacts globally”. If no measures are taken to reduce green house gas (GHG) emissions during this century and if there are no new technological developments that can reduce GHGs in the atmosphere, it is likely that the global mean surface temperature (GMST) will be 4 ◦C higher than the pre-industrial GMST at the end of the 21st century (Pachauri et al., 2014). Consequently, it is important that anthropogenic emissions are regulated and significantly reduced before widespread and irreversible impacts occur. It would help motivate mitigation to know when it is “too late”.

In this study we have defined the concept of the point of no return (PNR) in climate change more precisely using stochastic viability theory and a collection of mitigation scenarios. For an energy balance model, as in Sect. 3, the probability density function could be explicitly computed, and hence stochastic viability kernels could be determined. The additional advantage of this model is that a bi-stable regime can easily be constructed to investigate the effects of tipping behaviour on the PNR. We used this model (with the assumption that CO2 could be controlled directly instead of through emissions) to illustrate the concept of PNR based on a tolerance time for which the climate state is non-viable. For the RCP scenarios considered, the PNR is smaller in the bi-stable than in the mono-stable regime of this model. The occurrence of possible transitions to warm states in this model indeedcause the PNR to be “too late” earlier.

The determination of the PNR in the high-dimensional PlaSim climate model, however, shows the key innovation in our approach, i.e. the use of linear response theory (LRT) to estimate the probability density function of the GMST. PlaSim was used to compute another variant of a PNR based only on the requirement that the climate state is viable in the year 2100. Hence, the PNR here is the time at which no allowed mitigation scenario can be chosen to keep GMST below a certain threshold in the year 2100 with a specified probability. In the PlaSim results, we used a viability region defined as GMSTs lower than 2 ◦C above the pre-industrial value, but with our methodology, the PNR can be easily determined for any threshold defining the viable region. The more academic case in which we assume that GHG levels can be controlled directly provides PNR (for RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) values around 2050 (Sect. 4.2). However, the more realistic case in which the emissions are controlled (Sect. 4.3) and a carbon model is used reduces the PNR for these three RCP scenarios by about 30 years. The reason is that there is a delay between the decrease in GHG gas emissions and concentrations. my emphasis... I was reading this and went "wait, wuh?...

Although our approach provides new insights into the PNR in climate change, we recognize that there is potential for substantial further improvement. First of all, the PlaSim model has a too-high climate sensitivity compared to CMIP5 models. Although in the most realistic case (Sect. 4.3) we somehow compensate for this effect, it would be much better to apply the LRT approach to CMIP5 simulations. Second, in the LRT approach, we assume the GMST distributions to be Gaussian. This is well justified in PlaSim, as can be verified from the PlaSim simulations, but it may not be the case for a typical CMIP5 model. Third, for the more realistic case in Sect. 4.3, we do not capture the uncertainties in the carbon model and hence in the radiative forcing.

A large ensemble such as that available for PlaSim is not available (yet) for any CMIP5 model. However, we have recently applied the same methodology to two CMIP5 model ensembles, i.e. a 34-member ensemble of abrupt CO2 quadrupling and a 35-member ensemble of smooth 1 % CO2 increase per year. The CO2-quadrupling ensemble was used to derive the Green’s function, and then the 1 % CO2 increase ensemble was used as a check on the resulting response.

The probability density function of GMST increase is close to Gaussian for the 1 % CO2 increase ensemble but clearly deviates from a Gaussian distribution for the 4x CO2- forcing ensemble, particularly at later times. Although the ensemble is relatively small and the models within the ensemble are different (but many are related), the results for the LRT-determined GMST response (Aengenheyster, 2017) are surprisingly good. This indicates that the methodology has a high potential to be successfully applied to the results of
CMIP5 model simulations (and in the future, CMIP6). The applicability of LRT to other observables than GMST can in principle be performed, but the results may be less useful (e.g. due to non-Gaussian distributions).

Because PlaSim is highly idealized compared to a typical CMIP5 model, one cannot attribute much importance to the precise PNR values obtained for the PlaSim model as in Fig. 7. However, we think that our approach is general enough to handle many different political and socioeconomic scenarios combined with state-of-the-art climate models when adequate response functions of CMIP5 models have been determined (e.g. using LRT). Hence, it will be possible to make better estimates of the PNR for the real climate system. We therefore hope that these ideas on the PNR in climate change will eventually become part of the decision-making.

so, yeah, if I'm reading this wrong, that would be good to know
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-09-12 08:51 am

Fly, you fools!

First, to get it out of the way, I did *really* crappy on my first test of the semester. I've mentioned a couple of times that I must get 81% overall in the exams to pass the course. This semester is split into two courses, and I must pass the first one to move on to the second one. A person can only fail one class; a second failure and you will not be continuing on.

So far, I haven't failed a class. I did have to drop out for a semester when I injured my knee, but that doesn't count. There are four exams, with the first three being worth 50 points each, and the fourth cumulative exam worth 75 points. I must average 81% across all four exams to pass this course.

On the first test, I scored a 70%. I've never done so poorly. It still possible for me to pass, but it'll be tough.

I really don't want to do this, Sam-I-Am. I do not like it here or there. I do not like it anywhere.

*sigh*

Mike asked what he could do to help me pass. I said that I might be able to pass if I moved out and only worked on this from now until December -- no kids, no housework, no Chris, no job. Which isn't possible.

The next test is next Monday, and I have a 12 hour clinical on Friday, and then work 12 hour days on Saturday and Sunday. On the other hand, I have today and Thursday off. On the other hand, laundry needs doing and I have Chris to watch.

The main problem is that I'm having a really hard time concentrating on *anything*.

I just don't know if I can do this. Worse, I really don't want to. But I figure I might as well continue on and see how far forward I can get. If I fail this class, I'll reenter in January and see if I can graduate. I'm very willful.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-08-29 08:59 pm

let me sum up

I went to see the solar eclipse totality and dragged most of my kids and grandkids along. It was amazing. I loved it. I'm thinking of getting a tat for it, my first one! I dunno, how does old skin react to tattooing?


At Six Flags -- five sons, three daughter-in-laws, and ten grandchildren. No Jerome or David/Bekkah/Noah/Elliot

We went to the St. Louis Zoo, Six Flags, and then saw the eclipse. All together I drove over 2200 miles, personally driving about 1/3 of that. I was exhausted, and so full. I still feel full to bursting!


Zary (6), Eili (3), Jareth (5), Mac (3)


Luke at the campfire


nearing totality


So, this is the deal. When it went total and we took the glasses off, it was twilight-dark and there was a hole in the sky.

There. Was. A. Hole. In. The. Sky.

In a deep purple-blue sky, there was a hole of nothingness where the sun should be, and there was a bright ring of white fire around the hole of nothingness. I felt a moment of vertigo, like I would fall into it.

I am still amazed. I can still see it. I'll never forget it.

Pictures only give you a vague idea of what it might be like. There was a hole in the sky.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-08-17 07:54 am

Indivisible

I've made several stabs at making a difference -- signing up voters, talking to folks, driving voters. But just stabs, nothing substantial. It's just so overwhelming.

This morning I was thinking, well, I can just show up at stuff. I don't have to be on any committee or board, I don't have to stress myself out by having one more ball to juggle. I can just show up when I can.

So today, I signed up to get the newsletter from Lansing Indivisible. They hold meetings in the library every other Sunday, and I work every Sunday, so no meetings for me. But I'll read their newsletters and show up for things that happen when I'm not working or in class.

It feels like nothing, but I know that it's really, really something.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-07-10 09:27 am

the plan - update

I won't be able to buy property until I'm out of school, but I should graduate in December of this year. There's several pieces of property I'm looking at, and the one on the top of my list is hilly.

I like hilly for dealing with extreme rains. A flat field will be flooded; a terraced field will drain. If it's dry, you have to water both.

So this morning I was thinking about terracing. One that's appealing for both it's low cost and low tech is cribbing.

This is actually one of the best pics I could find:


Except I'd probably use untreated cedar logs. The "boxs" are filled with dirt until only the front is visible -- finished, it looks like this:


Edit: I've been looking for products that will last a long time buried. Cedar logs should last about 29-30 years. But. PVC will last 100 years. So, pvc pipe filled with sand and with holes drilled every so often for drainage. That should do.

Edit #2: Since Mike really doesn't like the idea of using wood and maybe redoing the terraces every 20 yrs, another option, perhaps a better option, would be poured concrete treated with a non-toxic concrete sealer like Green Building Supply, Penetrating Concrete Sealer. For this project, we'd probably go with a cement/sand/stone volume mix of 1:1½:3. As long as the cement "logs" aren't damaged, they should last a pre' long time. We'd use concrete forms that would look something like Lincoln Logs, and we'd need a small concrete mixer. I can see how we'd do it -- working on site, pour four forms on day one, next day, strip the forms, set the new "logs" on some 2X4s to cure, pour four more. Next day is a repeat of day two, but we'd also be painting the top of the first set will the sealer. Next day, same as previous day, but flip the first set over and paint the bottom of those with the sealer. So each "log" would take 4 days to complete. I figure we'd make them 10'X½'X½.

I just had a thought: would we work from the bottom of the hill up, or from the top, down? Huh.

Here's a map of the land I'm looking at. This is an 80 acre parcel. It consists of two hills with a saddle of swampy ground in between. The northwest corner is at about 46.565295, -87.8385602 and the southeast corner is at around 46.558049, -87.8349354


I'm thinking we'd grow on the south side of the north hill, and on the flat area on the south hilltop. Or something like that.

I have to have something to think about, to plan with, or I'll go a bit crazy. As soon as my tuition is paid (soon!) I'll start saving a hefty amount every month for the down payment. So we'll see if this one is still available in eight months...
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-05-28 11:32 pm

a walk in the woods

A walk in the woods, just as it started to rain --



I was in the UP a couple of weeks ago. Luke is doing very well and I miss him. We went to go look at a piece of property that I have my eye on.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-05-09 06:12 am

Wiscon offer - feel free to pimp

I have a room at Wiscon -- and there is one more space available.

I've also got a bit more cash than I normally do, and I was thinking I'd like to offer this space to someone who might not normally be able to go to Wiscon. So if you know someone who's decided at the last moment that they'd like to come (yeah, I know this is super late notice) let them know that there's a free room and I'd be able to pick up their membership, if they need that too. They'll have to provide their own transportation.

The roomies are sensitive to strong smells, so no smokers or use of scent. And they'll either have to share a bed with me or camp out on the floor.

There've been three times that I went to Wiscon and slept in my car. It's better than not going to Wiscon at all, but it's challenging. So if you know of anyone who might need a room, send them my way. Also, feel free to pimp this. Wiscon runs from May 26-29.

Also, I'm going to be driving from Lansing, MI, and I've got a minivan. If anyone needs a ride along the way, I'm game.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-05-02 05:48 am

because the arctic ice is disintegrating

Almost a decade ago, James Lovelock said that he thought climate change would be good for us in the way that WWII was good for Great Britain, that is, everyone will pull together and work toward the common good.

James Lovelock is a bit of a nut.

I've been thinking about this, about US response to real or perceived shrinkage of resources, and how different societies will deal with fewer resources. We have lots of food now. Lots and lots. But over the next decade, the cost of food will rise significantly. I think that within the next decade, there's a good chance that it'll go back to historical levels, more in line with the cost of food world wide. That means that the cost of what Usians buy now will almost double, from the average of 12% we spend today to 18% - 20%. And that's the average; 90% of Usians will be paying much more of their discretionary income for food.



As the cost of food goes up, and the availability of some things like coffee and bananas decreases, folk will become resentful, and the ones closer to the bottom will become very afraid. People who are honestly afraid do some crazy shit, like vote to take food away from someone else' children.

Or more like, slowly vote to take away services like after-school programs, well-child visits, psychological services, and on and on, until you get to everybody for themselves. It's like how the body will sacrifice internal organs, the liver or the kidneys, to send blood to the brain. The problem being that you can't live without your liver or kidneys.

Doug Sanders wrote in this Globe and Mail piece: "Sri Lanka, for example, is also experiencing a drought this year – its worst water shortage in four decades, one that has wiped out the entire year’s rice crop. Yet nobody in rice-dependent Sri Lanka is starving: The government simply spent $350-million to import enough rice to make up to for the losses. This hurt the Sri Lankan currency, but the economy has kept growing and people are eating."

Instead of being reassured, I wonder how often Sri Lanka will be able to do this?

On top of drought, we're looking at about 1.5" of sea level rise per year over the next ten years, which doesn't sound like much, but that's 15" in ten years, which is a hell of a lot. Between heat and drought in the desert states to flooding on the coasts, millions of people will be forced to relocate. You can think of it as a hundred Katrinas, stretched out over a decade, one after another. Most of those folks will have lost not only their jobs, but all the equity of their property.

Pulling back to look at the big picture, I can imagine that as the cost of food goes up and people have less discretionary income, they won't be getting that new phone or that new pair of jeans. And they won't be able to go grab a burger, because just the adult sandwich is gonna cost $10-$15, let alone the fries and the coke. And though minimum wage is edging up in some places, I don't expect it to double over the next ten years. Especially these next ten years.

According to the internet, the US has about 3,750,000 or so people working in fast food. I think that industry is gonna tank, and that there's not going to be a whole lot of jobs around for the two or three million people who'll be out a job. And of course, if won't just be these guys out of a job. Every other industry that depends of high levels of discretionary money spending will be firing staff -- clothing, books, toys, tourism. Millions and millions of people out of work, and even more, and those with fewer safety nets, in other parts of the world.

All of this at once. Now. Politically, policy-wise, I wonder what that will look like.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-04-26 06:22 am

Garden!

My raspberries made it through the transplant and are all sprouting leaves. Yay! I also have four blueberries -- two died last year so I'm looking to get two more. I'm going to order the variant Blueberry Glaze -- it reminds me of a type that grows in the UP, deep purple-black and sweet.

My crazy schedule has kept me from planting anything, but I got my paper done early, so I have time to go out today. I'm going to plant the broccoli and greens that I shoulda planted two weeks ago. Then I have my last clinical from 2:30 - 10:30 tonight.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-04-25 06:23 am

looming test week

I really hate tests.

I've got one week of this semester of nursing school remaining. Remaining is one paper (half way done, due on Thursday, piece of cake), one quiz and two exams -- the section exam on Monday and the comprehensive final on Thursday.

To pass the course, I need to pass clinicals (I have; I am awesome at clinicals), have a greater than 81% average on my exams (currently 80.72%) and have a greater than 81% overall (currently 87%). My main concern is that it is quite possible that I could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by tanking on the exams. I don't think that this will happen, but that is my fear.

Bleh. Stay on target.

Today I have to run the kids to school and run Jerome to the library and then to DHS, lecture from 10a-2p (we get breaks), pick up Mike from work (his car broke down two weeks ago) and an IEP meeting at the school for Trentyn at 2:30. Then home, supper, and off to finish my paper.

One more week.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-04-19 10:16 am

no joke uti

I think I've had a UTI for the last 2-4 weeks. No real symptoms other than night sweats, urgency. But I just chalked it up to being post menopausal and being on a really stressful schedule. This weekend I began having painful urination with a poor stream (dribbles, really) and put it all together. I'm now on Macrobid (nitrofurantoin) - which usually exhausts me. The fact that I feel so much better with *more energy* emphasizes to myself how sick I was.

When people say that infection response decreases with age, they mean it. Very weird experience.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-04-19 07:08 am

looking for suggestions

I have a very dingy living room. It faces north, with a big bay window. There's a fireplace that we've never used to the west (it needs a chimney sweep) and to the south is the wall to Jerome's room.

The floor used to have wall-to-wall carpeting, and now it's painted wood flooring with an unbound remnant over it. We have a cheap white-ish leather couch and a decrepit recliner.

On the plus side, it has lovely oak arts and crafts wood work and stained glass windows on either side of the fireplace.



East wall - couch is temporarily in front of fireplace.


north bay window


West wall.


Window detail

I need storage ideas, and a color palette. The pic of the window doesn't do the stained glass justice; it's emerald green, ruby red, and golden. I've been thinking of going with some type of honey color for the walls. I want to buy an inexpensive couch (the kids) and I dunno what to do for carpeting, but it's gotta be tough too.

I've been thinking of doing one of those cool in-the-stairs storage things, and putting in some shelving on the wall we've got to make for Jerome's room (right now there's just an entertainment center separating the two rooms.)
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-03-27 09:39 am

Hadley cell expansion

I was talking to one of my coworkers about climate change. It was an idle conversation, nothing too deep. I'm always surprised, though, about how people conceptualize it -- in this case, a kind of shruggy "yeah, that's gonna be a problem" kind of way.

We just experienced a new low Arctic ice maximum -- 13.878 million km2. In comparison, the maximum in 1979 was over 16.5 million km2, a decrease of about 17%, or about 4% per year. I figure we've got about another 20 years or so before we have a winter ice-free arctic.

I'm pre' damn sure that most folks have no idea to the chaos that will bring. What it is, is people gotta eat.

I'm reading a paper right now entitled Earth's changing global atmospheric energy cycle in response to climate change." It is dry. I will sum up:

Ed Lorenz is the guy who came up with the idea of the Butterfly Effect. As cool as that is, more importantly, he came up with the equations that define the potential and kinetic energy in planet atmospheres. His atmospheric equations were also applied to the hydrological cycle, and to equations figuring out stuff like wind energy.

Anyway, we call the conversion of this atmospheric kinetic, potential, and mechanical energy, and how that energy effects atmospheric circulation (which effects weather and climate) the Lorenz energy cycle.

Though there's been lots of study replicating and validating Lorenz's equations, study of the long term, over-time characteristics of the energy cycle are lacking. In this paper, the authors found some nifty super-scientific NASA satellite records, and got them to pasted together with a computer program that lets them see the data as an uninterrupted set that runs from 1958-2013.

"More details of computing the energy components of the Lorenz energy cycle of the global atmosphere are provided in the sections on Methods." (as Madmartigen said, "Tempting!")

Lets instead go right to the discussion. What they say is that when you add energy to a planet, the atmosphere jiggs up like a high-schooler buzzzed on a six-pack of redbull. That is, the authors are able to show strong positive trends of potential energy over the Asian continent in the Northern Hemisphere.

"The positive trends of potential energy in Central Asia, especially in West-central Mongolia, are associated with the increasing droughts in these areas, because the increasing droughts can magnify the temperature perturbation and hence cause the increase in potential energy. The two data sets also show the relatively weak positive trends over the eastern Pacific Oceans. Such positive trends are related to the intensifying tropical cyclones with global warming."

But beyond that, what I was really fact mining for was this one sentence: "Therefore, the positive trends of C(PM,KM) are due to the expansion of the Hadley Cell in the past 35 years, which was revealed in some previous studies."

Expansion of the Hadley cell, dudes. Are you still with me? As the Hadley cell moves north, the sub-tropical dry zones move with it. Heat, too. Right into the worlds various bread baskets. And when it does rain? Vicious storms that will likely smash what crops that folk were able to grow.

It's what the models and guys like Jim Hansen have been saying for about a decade, but now we have more than models.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-03-20 02:11 pm

Garden 2017

This morning I woke from a violet dream where I ended up picking up my assailant by the face and killing him by beating the back of his head against the side jamb of the entrance door. So, one nightmare attacker down!

I think I need stress relief, and *yay*! My seeds came in today.

I'm trying a bunch of new plants. Here's a list:

First, spring greens: chervil, bronze goldring rommain lettuce, black seeded simpson lettuce, bekana greens, outstanding romaine, and emerald fan lettuce.

I also got a miniature (3'-4') sweet corn called Little Giant, 2 kinds of bean, grex, and pellegrini, a cabbage called primo and an early carrot called mini-sweet, two types of tomato, a grape and one called myona, and three kinds of melon -- crimson sweet watermelon, "ice cream," and eel river.

I also got sugar beets, to see what it's like to make sugar. It's a ton of work, but I want to see how much sugar we get per, say, ten beets. And a kind of rice called koshihikari, and a kind of sunflower that's good for oil.

And flowers! I got flowers for the bees and such -- I got all my seeds from Bountiful Gardens, but I linked to a couple of other good places.

We'll see how it all goes!
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-03-19 08:23 pm

12 hrs on my feet

So far work is going very well. This unit is a lot like working in hospice. The thing I'm noticing the most is how bored the patients are. I'll have to think on that a bit. Right now Imma gonna go fall down and maybe sleep for ten hours.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-03-12 06:43 am

ch-ch-ch-changes!

So, I got fired from my jail nurse job on Thursday. It was a bit out of the blue but made sense; there had been complaints that I was too sympathetic to the inmates, and there'd been some friction between me and the other nurse at the clinic, who also happened to be my boss's mother. I didn't have any problem with her, but I'd said something that she took wrong, and it's stuck in her craw for weeks. And to be honest, I *did* give out unapproved motrin and milk of magnesia when the guys were in pain or, as is waaay common, constipated for days. So there.

I filed for unemployment and submitted six applications. Yesterday I got hired at a nursing home to work on their new ventilator unit making $6/hour more. Yes, two days later. That means that losing my job came to a net gain of about $12K/yr, minus the soul-eating -- for such things as not being allowed to give a motrin to a guy with a broken tooth and exposed nerves. (he can buy it off of commissary, and if he's indigent, well, that'll teach him to come to jail.)

Yesterday, after I got hired, I called my mom, who'll be 80 in a couple of weeks, and told her. She was a nurse from about 1960-2000, and she sniffed and said, "Too sympathetic. That's the best reason to be fired ever." She also cooed in appreciation when I told her that I was going to be trained for vents. "That you just secured your career for the rest of your life," she said.

So, whew, stress. For uncomfortable things and good things. My pediatrics unit starts on Monday with the med math test. Last time I got 100%, so I'm not too worried. But still, Ack, Test.

After the test, I go fill out paperwork at Human Resources and I start my training on Thursday.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-03-08 01:39 pm
Entry tags:

summer is coming

What with my stressful schedule and all, I haven't been on LJ or DW much at all. I've also not been spending much time reading over the arctic news -- I just know that it's all bad. And fascinating -- it's really amazing to watch, how something as big as the whole Earth system can change so quickly, in a lifetime.

From this entry at Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog


One of the scientists writes: "I'm expecting the peak in extent in the next week or so. What that will do for volume numbers I'm not so sure. I guess it depends on how fast the ice starts to drop.

Judging by the way 2017 is below the curve, I would say that it should peak in volume no later than mid April. Which will be another large departure from the norm." -- NeilT

So far, famine has been declared in South Sudan, where war and a collapsing economy have left some 100,000 people facing starvation there and a further one million people are classified as being on the brink of famine. More than 10 million people in Ethiopia need food aid due to the worst drought in more than 30 years, and neighboring Somalia where 4.7 million people (40 percent of the population) need food aid -- "war has joined forces with nature to plant the seeds of disaster." In Kenya, severe drought, failed harvests and Government’s poor preparedness are causing a food security emergency for 10 million, or about 1/5 of it's population.

In 2002, sometime before Mike went off to Iraq, I woke from a dream of flames, and a voice was saying, "It wasn't the change in climate. It was the wars that killed us."

I try to get it organized in my mind -- This is what the scientists were telling us, this is what was observed, this is what the politicians said, this is what my neighbors said, this is what I read in the newspapers.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-03-01 10:07 am

passed

I passed my test with a 92.42%, which gives me a likely 86.56% in the course. I got a 3.5. Huh.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-02-15 08:13 pm

Passed!

And with enough of a margin that I'm now passing the exam part of the course, but just barely. I've got a cumulative 81.15%; 81% is passing.

One more exam. I just have to pass it.
ljgeoff: (Default)
2017-02-09 06:50 am

in case you need to speak to this

"This weekend, conservative media outlets launched an attack on climate scientists with a manufactured scandal. The fake news originated from an accusation made by former NOAA scientist John Bates about a 2015 paper by some of his NOAA colleagues." -- The Guardian

How Bates’ complaints that boiled down to the fact that the paper didn’t have “a disclaimer at the bottom saying that it was citing research, not operational, data for its land-surface temperatures.” went from a whine about proceedure--

To “Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data.” From the Daily Mail.

The Guardian writes: "The story then spread through the international conservative media like a global warming-intensified wildfire - to Breitbart, Fox News, Drudge Report, Rush Limbaugh, The Daily Caller, The Washington Times, and more. Scott Johnson summed up the fake news story perfectly in an article at Ars Technica:

"At its core, though, it’s not much more substantial than claiming the Apollo 11 astronauts failed to file some paperwork and pretending this casts doubt on the veracity of the Moon landing."