Smithsonian Article - re: Denis Meadow's The Limits to Growth
We were up in Negaunee last weekend and the weather made Mike very uneasy; it was in the mid 60's both days. (The average for that date is 33 °F) I had been telling him for the last couple of years that this was coming and, it's not that he didn't think it would happen, it's that he didn't think that it would happen this soon. "Positive arctic oscillation this year," I said. "You know, a spike up and then it'll dip down for a year or two, maybe the AO will go negative and we'll get a really cold and snowy winter, but not as cold as we used to get. ENSO might go neutral for a year and we'll just chug along. But the next spike up will be a little hotter."
At least that's what I'm hoping for. Little jigs and jags. Peter Wadhams
left this little nugget on the Arctic News blog
"There is currently disagreement about when the summer Arctic will become completely ice-free. It depends on what model is being employed. My own view is based on purely empirical grounds, that is, matching the observations of area from satellites with observations from submarines (combined with some modeling) of thickness to give us ice volume. If we think in volume terms instead of area terms, the downward trend is more than linear, in fact it is exponential, and if extrapolated it gives us an ice-free summer Arctic as early as 2015."
2015 is a little earlier than what I was hoping for. I was really hoping it would last until at least 2020.
I keep trying to download the paper, The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis
(goes to pfd), but everytime I do, Springerlink crashes my little notebook.
In the Smithsonian article, Megan Gambino tries to get Dennis Meadows to describe what collapse would look like:
"Now, in real life, what would that mean? It is not clear. In a way, it is like being in San Francisco and knowing that there is going to be an earthquake and that it is going to cause buildings to fall down. Which buildings are going to fall down, and where are they going to fall? We just don’t have any way of understanding that. What we know is that energy, food and material consumption will certainly fall, and that is likely to be occasioned by all sorts of social problems that we really didn’t model in our analysis. If the physical parameters of the planet are declining, there is virtually no chance that freedom, democracy and a lot of the immaterial things we value will be going up."
When I think of it, I think of the movie Blood Diamond
. Crazy, right?
Mike and I have a friend, Jordan, who has 40 acres of property that no one uses. There's just him, his grandpa who's in the nursing home, his uncle who works at the grocery store and watches a lot of TV and his mom who lives at an AFC home. So we're going to ask Jordan if we can build a cabin on his 40 this summer -- well, start builing a cabin. We want to see how some of our ideas will work, namely the Russian stove and the bermed tire foundation.
When we got home, I checked on my plants and was irritated to find that Sam's cat had dug into and sprayed my cabbages and rutabagas. The cabbages and rutabagas didn't look too happy about it, either. So I puttered about with them in the afternoon before class, planted some more onions and carrots, and everything is outside on the porch where the damned cat can't get to them. Since it's in the 70's during the day and the 50's at night, the porch will be fine for them, and I should get them into the ground next week.