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COP 21 is the big climate summit that will be held in Paris from 30 November - 11 December 2015. There is a lot of hopefulness about this summit. I'm not particularly hopeful; it seems to me that these things are more important to the psychology of the world than actually do anything about climate change.
From an interview with Mikå Mered, managing Partner at POLARISK Group, the first market intelligence and political risk consultancy dedicated to the Arctic and Antarctic. He was interviewed by Pierre Monnier from L'Usine Nouvelle.
This is a translation from Laurent, on Neven's Arctic Ice Blog.
L'Usine Nouvelle: The National Center for Atmospheric Research is an expert in climate prediction. Do you believe, as he announced in September, that the Arctic Ocean will melt completely during the summer in 2100?
Mika Mered: According to various estimates made by climatologists, the US Navy says 2035, NASA has several scenarios ranging from 2030 to 2075. It is even before 2100. So it's something clear, clear and precise, the total melting of the Arctic Ocean arrives.
L'Usine Nouvelle: And the fact of limiting global warming to 2°C, which is the main objective of the COP21, will not change anything?
Mika Mered: The Arctic is melting and it will melt, the COP21 there or not. Whatever the agreement of the COP21 is, it will continue to melt.
L'Usine Nouvelle: Yet the subject of the Arctic will not be discussed during the COP21.
Mika Mered: There are 74% of the earth's surface which will not be discussed during the COP21. You have half days or thematic days on peoples and forests. But there are two issues that are not scheduled : polar regions and oceans. This may seem completely absurd but the oceans and the poles will not be discussed at COP21.
L'Usine Nouvelle: How do you explain it?
Mika Mered: The Arctic, Antarctic and oceans can be "deal breaker" agreements. That is to say that you can have an early agreement, but when we arrive on the oceans or the poles, there is a blockage.
L'Usine Nouvelle: What a subject directly threatened by global warming could prevent a deal?
Mika Mered: If you enter negotiations on oceans at the COP21, you will therefore initiate a review of the Montego Bay Convention of 1982, which governs the international law of the sea. The agreement was reached after long and difficult negotiations. There would be a tremendous cacophony. Similarly for the Antarctic Treaty and the Madrid Protocol, which is supposed to guarantee the proper use of science and the environment of Antarctica.
L'Usine Nouvelle: There is the Montego Bay agreement for the sea, the Madrid Protocol for the Antarctic, but no treaty on the Arctic. Why is it therefore not included in the negotiations?
Mika Mered: The Arctic is inhabited, the Arctic is shared, the Arctic has an existing legal structure and the Arctic coastal states have exclusive economic zone. Based on this principle, it would not be to the advantage of France, with a view to reaching agreement at COP21, to bring this matter specifically in negotiations.
L'Usine Nouvelle: Yet the Arctic meetings "Arctic Encounter" that you organize, will address specifically the Arctic.
Mika Mered: That's right, however, Arctic Encounter Paris 2015 aims to be a forum for discussion and not a beginning process towards commitments. On December 11, just after the close of COP21, experts will pick up on what has been done, or not, at the conference to see how the Arctic has been taken into account and analyze the impacts on the area.
L'Usine Nouvelle: The next day, you will give a voice to local actors, why?
Mika Mered: The Prime minister of Nunavut, the Inuit province of Canada, will open the day on the 12th December, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Economy and Greenland's Mineral Resources will conclude. These people must have a space for talking. They are impacted before us. This should be the logic; it is not one that will prevail at COP21.
Full article: "La COP21 a 40 ans de retard", dénonce Mikå Mered, spécialiste de l'Arctique
From an interview with Mikå Mered, managing Partner at POLARISK Group, the first market intelligence and political risk consultancy dedicated to the Arctic and Antarctic. He was interviewed by Pierre Monnier from L'Usine Nouvelle.
This is a translation from Laurent, on Neven's Arctic Ice Blog.
L'Usine Nouvelle: The National Center for Atmospheric Research is an expert in climate prediction. Do you believe, as he announced in September, that the Arctic Ocean will melt completely during the summer in 2100?
Mika Mered: According to various estimates made by climatologists, the US Navy says 2035, NASA has several scenarios ranging from 2030 to 2075. It is even before 2100. So it's something clear, clear and precise, the total melting of the Arctic Ocean arrives.
L'Usine Nouvelle: And the fact of limiting global warming to 2°C, which is the main objective of the COP21, will not change anything?
Mika Mered: The Arctic is melting and it will melt, the COP21 there or not. Whatever the agreement of the COP21 is, it will continue to melt.
L'Usine Nouvelle: Yet the subject of the Arctic will not be discussed during the COP21.
Mika Mered: There are 74% of the earth's surface which will not be discussed during the COP21. You have half days or thematic days on peoples and forests. But there are two issues that are not scheduled : polar regions and oceans. This may seem completely absurd but the oceans and the poles will not be discussed at COP21.
L'Usine Nouvelle: How do you explain it?
Mika Mered: The Arctic, Antarctic and oceans can be "deal breaker" agreements. That is to say that you can have an early agreement, but when we arrive on the oceans or the poles, there is a blockage.
L'Usine Nouvelle: What a subject directly threatened by global warming could prevent a deal?
Mika Mered: If you enter negotiations on oceans at the COP21, you will therefore initiate a review of the Montego Bay Convention of 1982, which governs the international law of the sea. The agreement was reached after long and difficult negotiations. There would be a tremendous cacophony. Similarly for the Antarctic Treaty and the Madrid Protocol, which is supposed to guarantee the proper use of science and the environment of Antarctica.
L'Usine Nouvelle: There is the Montego Bay agreement for the sea, the Madrid Protocol for the Antarctic, but no treaty on the Arctic. Why is it therefore not included in the negotiations?
Mika Mered: The Arctic is inhabited, the Arctic is shared, the Arctic has an existing legal structure and the Arctic coastal states have exclusive economic zone. Based on this principle, it would not be to the advantage of France, with a view to reaching agreement at COP21, to bring this matter specifically in negotiations.
L'Usine Nouvelle: Yet the Arctic meetings "Arctic Encounter" that you organize, will address specifically the Arctic.
Mika Mered: That's right, however, Arctic Encounter Paris 2015 aims to be a forum for discussion and not a beginning process towards commitments. On December 11, just after the close of COP21, experts will pick up on what has been done, or not, at the conference to see how the Arctic has been taken into account and analyze the impacts on the area.
L'Usine Nouvelle: The next day, you will give a voice to local actors, why?
Mika Mered: The Prime minister of Nunavut, the Inuit province of Canada, will open the day on the 12th December, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Economy and Greenland's Mineral Resources will conclude. These people must have a space for talking. They are impacted before us. This should be the logic; it is not one that will prevail at COP21.
Full article: "La COP21 a 40 ans de retard", dénonce Mikå Mered, spécialiste de l'Arctique