tighten your chin straps; the devil is coming to town

NOAA has a new pfd on the coming El Niño, ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. The short form is "There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter."

The chart above is kinda mind-blowing. The projected ocean temps are waaayy higher than we've ever seen, and by "we" I mean we-as-a-species.

I remember wondering about how the coming El Niño was going to play with the weirdly wavy jet stream, and now I can see it a bit. Unpredictable. Here in Michigan, we've been north of the jet for most of the summer, and it's been cool and wet. South of the jet stream is hot. Really hot.



"In addition to sweeping smoke south, the jet stream’s contorted positioning has caused a ridge of high pressure to build over western North America. This has allowed warm air to penetrate far to the north and raise temperatures as much as 20 degrees F above normal."

I just don't know what to expect for this El Niño winter here in Michigan. If we're above the jet, we'll probably freeze our asses off; south of the jet and we'll have one of those endless, dragging autumns, dry and brown.

I'd say it was interesting if it didn't scare the absolute shit out of me.