taking stock

[ljgeoff]

Ive been thinking about this for a while. I'm going to make each of these stages a tab. Id love your thoughts on where you think we are.

Stages of Collapse

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost. As local social institutions, be they charities, community leaders, or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity” (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.

Comments

Thoughts

[ysabetwordsmith]

I don't think it's as tidy as that.

>>Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost.<<

People still think business as usual is going. The problem is that business as usual consists of despoiling the Earth and abusing humans.

>> The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed.<<

Well, this is what climate change is doing. We're losing massive amounts of money to wildfires, hurricanes, etc. But this hasn't made people move out of fire chimneys in California or off coasts in Florida. Yet. At some point in the soon future those real estate markets will completely collapse. We are already seeing problems with insurance agencies unable to cope with this scope.

We're also seeing that upward growth has become downward growth as rich people suck all the wealth out of the economy. Adults today are often worse off than their parents were, and that is continuing to get worse. But people still act like America is a good place to live.

>>Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.<<

We've seen massive losses in household wealth for most Americans. That's getting worse as climate change brings disasters that neither insurance nor government cover fully, plus of course economic crashes. Some insurance companies have already folded. But mostly, the government is still bailing out businesses and letting citizens become homeless.

>>Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.<<

Most people already know the market isn't reliable. When 10% of the population owns 70% of the wealth, you see things like barter reviving because cash only outcompetes it when people have enough cash to meet their needs. Imports have been ravaged not only by tariffs but the sheer unpredictability of the lunatic in chief.

>>Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost.<<

Lots of people have long since lost that faith.

>> As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.<<

True. The Supreme Court hasn't been a legitimate body since President Obama was denied his right to appoint a judge, and look what a clusterfuck that's turned into. I told people at the time and nobody believed me.

>>Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost. As local social institutions, be they charities, community leaders, or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.<<

America's social fabric has been eroding for decades. We went from extended family to nuclear family to people living in ones and twos. It's bad for health and happiness; it wrecks support structure. People move so much that maintaining ties with friends or neighbors is hard. Participation in charities, churches, civic clubs, etc. is all down due to many factors.

>> Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity” (Turnbull, The Mountain People).<<

American capitalism has long worked against these virtues.

>> Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. <<

There are still families, but they are much smaller and more fragile than they used to be.

>>The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.<<

Fortunately we're not quite that far along yet. But climate change will eventually cause the kind of famines that do go there. The planet isn't going to support 8+ billion homs much longer.

Re: Thoughts

[ljgeoff]

>We're also seeing that upward growth has become downward growth as rich people suck all the wealth out of the economy. Adults today are often worse off than their parents were, and that is continuing to get worse. But people still act like America is a good place to live.

I agree. What I'd like to look at though is a more than one generation historical perspective. The times we are going through now look very much like the 1920s, with the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer, the younger generation being worse off, and home ownership was low. Of course, it was a different world. There was little social safety net. There were no available loans for new home buyers, as federally guaranteed loans weren't a thing yet. If you were poor and got sick, you suffered. Wages were low, and workers who banded together were often attacked and killed, sometimes along with their families. If you weren't white, all of this was compounded.

Then came the Depression, and things sucked for a lot of people. Some people did ok, or at least were able to provide for their families. I've talked to a lot of elders who lived through those times. Society didn't collapse, and things got better.

But those people weren't facing an ecological disaster.

>Most people already know the market isn't reliable.

Indeed. There are still a lot of people working upper middle class jobs, my son is a supervisor in a wastewater treatment plant, and my husband is a truck driver; both of them have 401(K). Interestingly, a lot of the 401(K) plans are more into bonds and mutual funds, not so much in stock because of volitility. edit: some 401(K) managers recommend that younger people go a head and put a percentage of their investment into stock, as they have time to weather ups and downs, and historically, it's up in the long run.

Re: Political collapse -- I listen to a lot of the MAGAverse. They see a different reality than I do, so I can only look at it for so long. They don't "believe in" climate change. What I find most distressing from this political orientation, though, is their lack of care or respect for their fellow man. They are the most callous, hateful, willfully ignorant people I could ever imagine.

When I was in university and studying human behavior, I read Behave by Robert Sapolsky. One of the things he wrote about was the human behavior of fearing strangers. It's what we teach children today - strangers might kill you. As adults, we should be able to see beyond this childhood teaching, but conservative people are conservative by nature. Painting with a very broad brush, most people of a conservative nature have difficulty un-learning childhood lessons.

Will the fear, hatred, and blindness of the current administration cause the collapse of our society, no, but when things get bad, MAGA behaviors will make it worse.

What you are saying is also what I've been thinking: all of these things, intertwined, and climate change there to put a cherry on top.

We'll see how it goes after the '26 elections. If they aren't cancelled.

Re: Thoughts

[ysabetwordsmith]

>> What I'd like to look at though is a more than one generation historical perspective. <<

I do try to look at overall patterns.

>> The times we are going through now look very much like the 1920s, with the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer, the younger generation being worse off, and home ownership was low. <<

I've noticed that. It helps that my grandparents came out of the Depression and taught me many useful skills. "Eat it all, use it up, wear it out. Make it do, or do without."

>>Of course, it was a different world. There was little social safety net. <<

There is very little left of that safety net now. People routinely go without health care or lose their homes. Almost all old people are impoverished. People struggle to get enough food. Those are all things the net was designed to fix, and that current people in power believe should be paid privileges rather than human rights.

>>If you were poor and got sick, you suffered. Wages were low, and workers who banded together were often attacked and killed, sometimes along with their families. If you weren't white, all of this was compounded.<<

That's very much the same. But I note that oppressed people are starting to fight back by attacking those in power, which is what always happens eventually, and society is losing its shit over that. *shrug* That's what happens when you put a sealed pot on a hot stove.

>>But those people weren't facing an ecological disaster.<<

That's what I think will make the difference, making recovery difficult if not impossible. People could make intelligent decisions -- for instance, rolling a city back from a coast prone to floods and hurricanes by building only on the inland side -- but they are not. Every disaster wipes out large amounts of value. There's only so long people can keep kicking the can down the street.

>> I listen to a lot of the MAGAverse. <<

O_O I prefer not to wade in sewers, but I guess someone has to keep an eye on the rats.

>>They see a different reality than I do, so I can only look at it for so long. They don't "believe in" climate change. <<

Or other inconvenient truths.

>>What I find most distressing from this political orientation, though, is their lack of care or respect for their fellow man. They are the most callous, hateful, willfully ignorant people I could ever imagine.<<

They are intensely evil. I can think of worse examples, like say the Nazi mad scientists or the Dutch slavers, but that's about it.

>>As adults, we should be able to see beyond this childhood teaching, but conservative people are conservative by nature.<<

What we have today is not conservatism. It is radical, untested change in a violently dangerous direction. Real conservatism is slow, cautious, thoughtful -- the balance to progressives who sometimes leap before they look.

>>Will the fear, hatred, and blindness of the current administration cause the collapse of our society, no, but when things get bad, MAGA behaviors will make it worse.<<

Societies can and do collapse. Earth is littered with the ruins of once-great civilizations, who probably all thought they were the pinnacle of development and would continue indefinitely. Look at the list of common reasons why civilizations die out. These include climate change (various types), invasion from outside, corruption from within, natural disasters, and mass migrations. Climate change is rampant. I think invasion is less likely for America, but extremely likely in Europe and an unchecked tyrant will eventually seek global reach. Corruption is a problem throughout America. Natural disasters are getting worse and more frequent. And we've barely seen the tip of the iceberg on mass migrations, which America absolutely is not equipped to handle at all well. I'm talking about half or more of the world population on the move, 4+ billion people, as parts of the planet go into environmental foreclosure.

Now, the severity of these issues will depend a lot on how people respond. Based on evidence to date, I predict a lot of those responses will be stupid and make matters worse. They know what they need to do; they just damn well don't want to do it.

>>We'll see how it goes after the '26 elections. If they aren't cancelled.<<

Canceling them would be premature electile dysfunction. It's early enough for there to be a real risk of pushback. Much safer and more sensible, and almost as effective, would be corrupting the elections instead. Gerrymandering, blocking eligible voters from voting, hacking electronic voting machines, using corrupt judges to fiddle results -- the standard chicanery they have already deployed. I wouldn't be surprised by stupid people doing stupid things, but I suspect that tampering is still more likely at this stage.

Re: Thoughts

[ljgeoff]

As I'm sure you know, this is a discussion between my hopes and my fears.

Re: Thoughts

[ysabetwordsmith]

I have a dolphin divination deck with a handful of cards that are so obviously translated from dolphin -- one of which is "swimming between hope and fear."

I generally watch for opportunities to promote hope, while taking steps to fend off predictable problems.