a cyclone is roaring across the arctic

[ljgeoff]

This is very big news.



It's expected that this storm will cause a flash melt in the arctic. From Neven's blog:

Paul Klemenic: If we wanted to design a storm to destroy ice pack, I don't think we could do it any better than the current reality.

This storm will pick up moisture from Siberia and the Laptev, it already has picked up moisture from the Kara, and it will move all this thermal energy into the E. Siberian and Chukchi. Furthermore, it will churn things up big time and bring up warmer saltier water. The ice pack is weak and fractured at this point in the season, so wave action won't be quashed, as it would normally.

And the storm will push ice toward the Beaufort with its relative warmth, then even pick up more moisture and warmth to carry back over the Central Arctic.

As the wind rotates around the low, it will push the fractured edges of the CAB ice pack away from the pack and toward the Laptev, which also has plenty of warm water. And churn things up along the way.

The storm will keep this up for 6-8 days, although the peak will last 3-4 days. This is plenty of time to do lots of damage.

And finally, the storm hits right after the peak solar period ends, but before the surrounding seas and atmosphere begins cooling down into autumn.

This really is "A Perfect Storm".

(and later, down thread)

OK, the new Bremen map is up, and I have really underestimated the impact of this storm. The damage is huge in the Chukchi and the E. Siberian, and elsewhere (notably the Beaufort and Laptev regions) the ice pack is coming apart.

And the storm hasn't even hit yet.

Steve Bloom: Hmm, some sea ice expert, can't recall who, said several years ago that the first ice-free event would be quite sudden. Perhaps this was the anticipated mechanism.

Not that it's important, but present conditions seem to make it likely that the pack will lose contact with all of the small archipelagos, leaving contact with only the QEI and Greenland.

The US Navy projects "what this growing cyclonic monster in the Arctic might be doing to the ice by Friday, August 10th

And here is a graphic showing arctic ice changes over a 48 hour period, Aug 4-Aug5.

Why is this important?