arctic slushy

[ljgeoff]

Incredibly happy family news aside, I logged in two or four times today to check up on the status of the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012. (sadly, Gaagii (Navajo for Raven) has not stuck)

It wasn't until just now that I saw a post by pickledginger, reporting that, "for the United States, last month apparently was the hottest month on record. Not the hottest July -- the hottest month."

Here is a beautiful, high definition pic of the storm.

One commenter over at Andrew Revkin's NYT opinion piece sums up my concerns:"Low pressure over the North Pole in summer and high pressure in the winter is the opposite of the way it always was during recorded history, until recently. Reversed pressure at the pole shifts the Rossby wave, causing the jet stream to shift and giving us very "unusual" weather. The weather keeps on getting weirder.

The global climate models are telling us that more global warming will make farming more difficult. Goodbye food. An interesting storm indeed."

I look around at this summer, the drought and the heat, the storms, the floods, -- and I wonder, how will we do when it's worse, and worse and worse? How long can things hold together?

Comments

[pickledginger]

*waves hello*

Great storm shot! Still kind of stunned at the concept.

I was interested, too, in the bit of the BBC record-US-heat writeup that said:

"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has noted that its index for measuring extreme weather -- and not simply heat -- has surpassed its old record, set in 2011.

"The US Extreme Climate Index, which reflects how much of the nation is experiencing extreme weather, is at 37% -- above an average of 20%.

"For the first seven months of the year, the index was at 46%, trumping the old record set in 1934."

First response: We have an Extreme Climate Index? How cool is that!
Second: Nearly twice the average? And this thing hasn't been running for long.

On a brighter note, the drought eased a wee bit last week, and is projected to abate a little more this month in many places -- which may improve a few harvests. (We have GOT to switch to hardier, less-thirsty crops!) This week's drought report is due today.

[ljgeoff]

I don't know enough about statistics, so I can't say much about standard of deviation, but I do know that 1 standard of deviation is rare, and in an Earth/biological system, 2 standards of deviation is extremely rare.

I'm kinda thinking that a near 100% increase is more than 2 standards of deviation.

Re bright side: we have rain here today, a slow, soaking rain. It's lovely.

[pickledginger]

The gentle rain (finally) from heaven doth fall.
:-)
Enjoy!

"Nearly double" does sound likely to be of statistical significance, yes. But I've not seen the variability of the data.

Hey, speaking of things not known, have you looked into whether you might be able to get any free online training out of your local unemployment office? Just a thought.

(I am having fun telling people about the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012: "I guess we could call it a tropical storm, but north of Alaska isn't exactly tropical. ... It's like living in a bad science fiction movie, Isn't it?" Never mentioning the controversial words "global warming" or even "climate change," but hopefully planting a seed.)

[pickledginger]

Oh, the report is up now on the extreme climate site ... and it's the CONTIGUOUS 48 states, not the whole US, that just had the hottest month ever. I hate when journalists get it wrong.