question answered

[ljgeoff]

A while back, I was thinking about the El Nino and the crazy jet stream and wondered how those two might play together in 2015. Usually, the El Nino brings lots of rain to California, but I wondered how the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge and the crazy jet stream might affect that pattern.

Dr Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute in California, was quoted:

“We've had four years of severe drought and hoped that the current El Nino [weather system], the strongest on record, would bring relief in the form of strong precipitation,” he wrote.

“It hasn't so far, and there are only about six to eight more weeks in our rainy season. One reason appears to be that storm tracks have gone far to the north because, possibly, of these very changes in the Arctic and atmospheric circulation patterns.

“I'm afraid we're in for a fifth year of drought.”

Comments

[wild_irises]

I don't think that's actually the least bit accurate. California is well over average annual rainfall to date all over the state, and reservoirs and snow pack are both good. The rainfall has fallen off dramatically in the last month, and it does seem like the RRR is coming back into play, which reduces our chances of average annual rainfall for the water year, which would have been much better for the ongoing drought than if it stops here. But this has not been a drought year by any definition I understand.

[ljgeoff]

Hmm. Well, from the Drought Monitor, released Thursday February 25, 2016: "Extending back another 7 days, precipitation over the past two weeks — even with this week’s rain and snow — has fallen well short of normal over most of the state. Nevertheless, a boost to northern California’s SWE and reservoir storage led to a small reduction of Extreme Drought (D3). However, the recent overall trend toward warmer, drier weather — despite the ongoing strong El Niño — has raised concerns over increasing short-term drought impacts in addition to the region’s ongoing long-term (“L” Impact) drought."

[johnpalmer]

Well - I don't have the information to have a meaningful opinion, but it strikes me that your terminology is potentially consistent: it might not be a drought *year* but it might not be anywhere near enough to bring California out of drought conditions.

[wild_irises]

Yes, this is exactly right. We have reasonably good snowpack and tolerably good reservoir levels (which will be better after the snow melts), and now (mirabile dictu!) we have the forecast of at least another week of rain.

The water managers are releasing more water to farmland this year than last year (though still not very much). This is a much better year than the last few, and La Nina bodes another decent year next year. Ground water is vastly improved by the rains this year. But the long-term trends are still very scary.

Also, while El Nino patterns are good for California and the western U.S., they suck for Australia and other parts of the southern hemisphere.