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arctic ice
May. 1st, 2012 02:59 amYeah, you know it's not looking too good.
Ok, you might have heard that the ice cover has rebounded. Wishful thinking, folks. The ice is crappy. And it's not just a bunch of scientists saying that so, anecdotally -- a study came out way back in 2009 that the satellite images and the actual ice conditions aren't matching up (Perennial pack ice in the southern Beaufort Sea was not as it appeared in the summer of 2009," by David G. Barber et al., GRL 36 (2009); doi:10.1029/2009GL041434) that said:
"In September 2009 we observed a much different sea icescape in the Southern Beaufort Sea than anticipated, based on remotely sensed products. Radarsat-derived ice charts predicted 7 to 9 tenths multi-year (MY) or thick first-year (FY) sea ice throughout most of the Southern Beaufort Sea in the deep water of the Canada Basin. In situ observations found heavily decayed, very small remnant MY and FY floes interspersed with new ice between floes, in melt ponds, thaw holes and growing over negative freeboard older ice. This icescape contained approximately 25% open water, predominantly distributed in between floes or in thaw holes connected to the ocean below. Although this rotten ice regime was quite different that the expected MY regime in terms of ice volume and strength, their near-surface physical properties were found to be sufficiently alike that their radiometric and scattering characteristics were almost identical."
So don't believe all those pretty pictures of nice white ice cover. Here's a quote from one of the cryoscientists, over at Nevin's Arctic Blog:
"Misfratz, the temperatures in the SOO and Bering sea have been warm during April. the kind of temperatures that melt ice while the Kara sea has not been that warm and is further north. Things appear to be happening pretty much as one would expect. South Kara sea has fresh very thin ice near the coast and the whole of the south Kara is going to start melting very soon. when that happens the extent will drop like a stone.
Greenland sea is doing what one would expect with a thinner more mobile pack and stays at a high extent. The Barentsz costal ice has melted off and the northern Barentsz ice is being topped up from the movement of ice from the central arctic. All very normal and predictable.
The Bering sea and SOO ice still visible is very shattered and thin looking for the most part. Huge extent drops on the way in May."
The other big news is the arctic methane. Holy Wah, guys. The methane. It's been sitting at about 1.6-1.8 (1800 mol/mol) throughout March and April. This is a big deal. Our "normal" range for atmospheric methane is 600 nmol/mol.
So, what we're looking at is energy being absorbed by the black arctic ocean and then being held in by a blanket of methane.
Ok, you might have heard that the ice cover has rebounded. Wishful thinking, folks. The ice is crappy. And it's not just a bunch of scientists saying that so, anecdotally -- a study came out way back in 2009 that the satellite images and the actual ice conditions aren't matching up (Perennial pack ice in the southern Beaufort Sea was not as it appeared in the summer of 2009," by David G. Barber et al., GRL 36 (2009); doi:10.1029/2009GL041434) that said:
"In September 2009 we observed a much different sea icescape in the Southern Beaufort Sea than anticipated, based on remotely sensed products. Radarsat-derived ice charts predicted 7 to 9 tenths multi-year (MY) or thick first-year (FY) sea ice throughout most of the Southern Beaufort Sea in the deep water of the Canada Basin. In situ observations found heavily decayed, very small remnant MY and FY floes interspersed with new ice between floes, in melt ponds, thaw holes and growing over negative freeboard older ice. This icescape contained approximately 25% open water, predominantly distributed in between floes or in thaw holes connected to the ocean below. Although this rotten ice regime was quite different that the expected MY regime in terms of ice volume and strength, their near-surface physical properties were found to be sufficiently alike that their radiometric and scattering characteristics were almost identical."
So don't believe all those pretty pictures of nice white ice cover. Here's a quote from one of the cryoscientists, over at Nevin's Arctic Blog:
"Misfratz, the temperatures in the SOO and Bering sea have been warm during April. the kind of temperatures that melt ice while the Kara sea has not been that warm and is further north. Things appear to be happening pretty much as one would expect. South Kara sea has fresh very thin ice near the coast and the whole of the south Kara is going to start melting very soon. when that happens the extent will drop like a stone.
Greenland sea is doing what one would expect with a thinner more mobile pack and stays at a high extent. The Barentsz costal ice has melted off and the northern Barentsz ice is being topped up from the movement of ice from the central arctic. All very normal and predictable.
The Bering sea and SOO ice still visible is very shattered and thin looking for the most part. Huge extent drops on the way in May."
The other big news is the arctic methane. Holy Wah, guys. The methane. It's been sitting at about 1.6-1.8 (1800 mol/mol) throughout March and April. This is a big deal. Our "normal" range for atmospheric methane is 600 nmol/mol.
So, what we're looking at is energy being absorbed by the black arctic ocean and then being held in by a blanket of methane.