in the face of 2030
May. 26th, 2014 08:39 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ljgeoffMy daughter-in-law, the lovely Kayla Moser, and I were talking the other day about tattoos. Kayla's daughter Torrin, who's 2 1/2, was showing me her temporary tattoos, and I asked Kayla how she felt about Torrin getting tattoos. Kayla has several tattoos and piercings, and she was quick to respond that of course Torrin can get tattoos and piercings if that's what she wants.
And my next thought was, maybe, depending on how bad it is by then... hmm, Torrin'll be 18 in 2030; it'll be pre' bad by then.
Which is to say, I see everything through the lens of the coming catastrophe.
Someone talks hopefully of their 401(k)and retirement in twenty years? I don't think so, I think, and I'm sorry.
Someone talks about mankind going to mars? About their new baby going to college some day? About the development of AI robots? About future cities and how the world will look with 9 billion people?
"If a risk-averse (pro-safety) approach is applied – say, of less than 10% probability of exceeding the 2 °C target – to carbon budgeting, there is simply no budget available, because it has already been used up....the idea of "burnable carbon" – that is, how much more coal, gas and oil we can burn and still keep under 2 °C – is a dangerous illusion, based on unrealistic, high-risk assumptions." (David Sprattin Climate Code Red)
This graph is from Robert Howarth's A bridge to nowhere: methane emissions and the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas
Observed global mean temperature from 1900 to 2009 and projected future temperature under four scenarios, relative to the mean temperature from 1890 to 1910. The scenarios include the IPCC [36] reference, reducing carbon dioxide emissions but not other greenhouse gases (“CO2 measures”), controlling methane, and black carbon emissions but not carbon dioxide (“CH4 + BC measures”), and reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and black carbon (“CO2 + CH4 + BC measures”). An increase in the temperature to 1.5–2.0°C above the 1890–1910 baseline (illustrated by the yellow bar) poses risk of passing a tipping point and moving the Earth into an alternate state for the climate system. The lower bound of this danger zone, 1.5° warming, is predicted to occur by 2030 unless stringent controls on methane and black carbon emissions are initiated immediately. Controlling methane and black carbon shows more immediate results than controlling carbon dioxide emissions, although controlling all greenhouse gas emissions is essential to keeping the planet in a safe operating space for humanity. Adapted from (UNEP/WMO. 2011. Integrated assessment of black carbon and tropospheric ozone: summary for decision makers. United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization, Nairobi, Kenya).
The above graph actually gave me nightmares. I live and breathe this stuff and haven't had a climate change nightmare in years but this one gave me nightmares because of the scale of the graph: 1.5° warming, is predicted to occur by 2030 unless stringent controls on methane and black carbon emissions are initiated immediately.
Because since I've been reading this stuff, since about '06 or so, no matter what anyone projects, it's always worse. Always. "Initiated immediately"? Hahaha*sob*.
At 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial averages, world food production will drop 25%-50% of current production, and the risk of world-wide famine if we have several bad years in a row is pretty certain. Myself, I can't really imagine what world wide famine would look like, but it seems that I'm going to find out.
I try to think of what Lovelock said -- enjoy life now. I find joy every day. But I see the future through this lens. Every event, every hopeful projection. And I don't understand why everyone else doesn't, too.
And my next thought was, maybe, depending on how bad it is by then... hmm, Torrin'll be 18 in 2030; it'll be pre' bad by then.
Which is to say, I see everything through the lens of the coming catastrophe.
Someone talks hopefully of their 401(k)and retirement in twenty years? I don't think so, I think, and I'm sorry.
Someone talks about mankind going to mars? About their new baby going to college some day? About the development of AI robots? About future cities and how the world will look with 9 billion people?
"If a risk-averse (pro-safety) approach is applied – say, of less than 10% probability of exceeding the 2 °C target – to carbon budgeting, there is simply no budget available, because it has already been used up....the idea of "burnable carbon" – that is, how much more coal, gas and oil we can burn and still keep under 2 °C – is a dangerous illusion, based on unrealistic, high-risk assumptions." (David Sprattin Climate Code Red)
This graph is from Robert Howarth's A bridge to nowhere: methane emissions and the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas
Observed global mean temperature from 1900 to 2009 and projected future temperature under four scenarios, relative to the mean temperature from 1890 to 1910. The scenarios include the IPCC [36] reference, reducing carbon dioxide emissions but not other greenhouse gases (“CO2 measures”), controlling methane, and black carbon emissions but not carbon dioxide (“CH4 + BC measures”), and reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and black carbon (“CO2 + CH4 + BC measures”). An increase in the temperature to 1.5–2.0°C above the 1890–1910 baseline (illustrated by the yellow bar) poses risk of passing a tipping point and moving the Earth into an alternate state for the climate system. The lower bound of this danger zone, 1.5° warming, is predicted to occur by 2030 unless stringent controls on methane and black carbon emissions are initiated immediately. Controlling methane and black carbon shows more immediate results than controlling carbon dioxide emissions, although controlling all greenhouse gas emissions is essential to keeping the planet in a safe operating space for humanity. Adapted from (UNEP/WMO. 2011. Integrated assessment of black carbon and tropospheric ozone: summary for decision makers. United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization, Nairobi, Kenya).
The above graph actually gave me nightmares. I live and breathe this stuff and haven't had a climate change nightmare in years but this one gave me nightmares because of the scale of the graph: 1.5° warming, is predicted to occur by 2030 unless stringent controls on methane and black carbon emissions are initiated immediately.
Because since I've been reading this stuff, since about '06 or so, no matter what anyone projects, it's always worse. Always. "Initiated immediately"? Hahaha*sob*.
At 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial averages, world food production will drop 25%-50% of current production, and the risk of world-wide famine if we have several bad years in a row is pretty certain. Myself, I can't really imagine what world wide famine would look like, but it seems that I'm going to find out.
I try to think of what Lovelock said -- enjoy life now. I find joy every day. But I see the future through this lens. Every event, every hopeful projection. And I don't understand why everyone else doesn't, too.