study on arctic rain
Oct. 14th, 2022 04:13 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ljgeoffI haven't written much about the climate lately because everyone is pretty much getting it now, and there's just not much more to say. But this study that came out a year ago blindsided me:
New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected
I'm always surprised at the mild, understated way that scientists talk. I didn't see anything about this in the regular climate news that I follow. What this study says is that sometime between 2050 and 2080, the arctic will see more rainfall than snow.
More rain than snow. In the arctic circle. In thirty to fifty years.
"The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5 °C, with profound climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impact."
McCrystall's study came up because there's a new study out this month confirming the findings: More Frequent, Intense, and Extensive Rainfall Events in a Strongly Warming Arctic"
"The largest increase in the maximum intensity of rainfall occurs over eastern Siberia, western Alaska and the southwestern edge of Greenland from July to September, which can reach ∼12 mm/day. This means that there will be more heavy rainfall events in the warm season in a large part of the Arctic land area with global warming."
This is fucking huge; glacier melt, tundra melt, methane release, greening of the tundra, ecosystem chaos. It's all there, crammed into a span of a few decades. I actually feel a little sick.
New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected
I'm always surprised at the mild, understated way that scientists talk. I didn't see anything about this in the regular climate news that I follow. What this study says is that sometime between 2050 and 2080, the arctic will see more rainfall than snow.
More rain than snow. In the arctic circle. In thirty to fifty years.
"The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5 °C, with profound climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impact."
McCrystall's study came up because there's a new study out this month confirming the findings: More Frequent, Intense, and Extensive Rainfall Events in a Strongly Warming Arctic"
"The largest increase in the maximum intensity of rainfall occurs over eastern Siberia, western Alaska and the southwestern edge of Greenland from July to September, which can reach ∼12 mm/day. This means that there will be more heavy rainfall events in the warm season in a large part of the Arctic land area with global warming."
This is fucking huge; glacier melt, tundra melt, methane release, greening of the tundra, ecosystem chaos. It's all there, crammed into a span of a few decades. I actually feel a little sick.
(no subject)
Date: 2022-10-15 02:30 am (UTC)the earth will survive this but i won't be surprised if we don't <3
(no subject)
Date: 2022-10-17 01:34 pm (UTC)