arctic ice update

[ljgeoff]

Predictions for arctic ice are all over the place this year. Most scientists are predicting that it'll hit lower than last year, but not as low as 2012, the lowest record. Some outlier predictions are that it will tank. A lot of scientists are simply throwing up their hands and saying it could go any way. Here's a snippet from comments in Neven Acropolis' Arctic Ice Blog:

Bremen maps are showing that the Northern Sea Route will open in the next few days to a week, depending on weather.

The NW passage is now showing almost 50% concentration over most of the ice. Could be melt ponds but doesn't look like it won't open now.

More interestingly is what is happening off Banks Island and the Canadian/Alaskan coast. I'm assuming the massive change to 50% concentration is partly driven by melt ponds, but a quick look at o-Buoy9 tells the tale of what is going on.

One of the more interesting seasons. A quick check of the DMI SST tells another interesting story. Whilst the Anomaly is a good indication, because it only goes to 4+ it is not a very good guide of just how hot it is there. Last time I saw temps of Arctic water at 12C+, was 2012. Where the ice is melting, DMI is showing 12C, or more, water temps. That is not a coincidence and I don't believe it's melt ponds.

More interesting viewing again in the next week. Barrow is clear skies again and the temp is climbing....

Given the water temps I'm guessing that we really will see the outcome of Dr Barbers view on rotten ice. If it's that warm and the ice is really rotten, but showing on all reports as solid, then it won't be long for this world. -- Posted by: NeilT | July 23, 2015 at 05:54

The Barber/rotten ice reference comes from this 2012 article: Arctic Ice “Rotten” to the North Pole, scientist says

The two big concerns linked to loss of arctic ice is the release of stored methane (this study is a good read, too -- ymmv for "good") and the loss of albedo.